Cold-season (October–March) storms, particularly severe snowstorms, are responsible for significant economic losses and have crucial impacts on freshwater availability and ecosystems in high-latitude North America. These snowstorms also contribute to destructive floods during rapid snowmelt. Thus, ecosystems and water infrastructure in Canada are highly sensitive to changes in cold-season storms under

Compared with individual hot or drought extremes, compound hot and drought events (CHDEs) usually cause more disastrous socio-economic damage. Thus, understanding the change of CHDEs in the context of global warming is crucial for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This article, based on the CN05.1 gridded dataset and 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations

Research on marine heat waves (MHWs) in the Red Sea has focused on the surface signatures of these extreme warm events, such as the sea surface temperature (SST). This focus may potentially neglect the detrimental effects of subsurface MHWs. The unprecedented coral bleaching event observed in the southern Red Sea in 2015, despite less intense SSTs than in the MHW in 2002, highlights this oversight

In March 2023, southeastern South America (SESA) experienced a severe heatwave with its maximum intensity exceeding four standard deviations from the climatological mean. The timing of the occurrence was also unusual, as it occurred in the late summer. This study examines the contributing factors to the March 2023 SESA heatwave using a dynamical adjustment approach based on constructed atmospheric

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in extreme precipitation in East Asia during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear partly due to the use of relatively coarse models. This study investigates future changes in East Asian ARs using high-resolution climate model simulations. The results show

Precipitation is crucial for water supply and energy generation in the Alps. However, heavy precipitation can also lead to natural disasters. It is therefore essential to understand the changes in both mean and extreme precipitation in order to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study jointly models the observed long-term trends in both the bulk and extremes of daily precipitation

This paper evaluates the performance of a synoptic index-based model designed to predict extreme non-seismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (NSLOTTs) across 32 tide-gauge stations in the Mediterranean Sea, where NSLOTTs can contribute up to 50 % of the total sea-level range. The model employs percentile-determined threshold exceedance criteria to define extreme NSLOTT events. A part of

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs), extreme ocean warming events, have attracted global attention. This research utilizes forecast data from SEAS5 (Seasonal Forecasting System 5) and OISST (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature), applying a range of evaluation metrics from both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting viewpoints. It assesses the forecasting performance of the SEAS5 in the Northeast

Extreme rainfall resulted from landfalling tropical cyclones (ERLTC) can lead to severe disasters and enormous economic losses across China, highlighting the critical need to improve ERLTC forecasting accuracy for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study examines 789 ERLTC days in China from 1979 to 2019. These ERLTC days are classified into four dominant synoptic patterns (P1 to P4) using the

This study proposed a novel quantitative index, the Symmetric Ratio, derived from satellite observations to depict Tropical Cyclone (TC) inner-core symmetry. This index is found to be significantly influential in TC Rapid Intensification (RI). We applied four machine learning (ML) models—Decision Tree, Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Adaptive Boosting to forecast TC RI in the Northwestern

Skillful forecasting of reservoir inflow is one of the main prerequisites for determining reservoir operation and management policies. This research incorporates proven techniques in a novel way to develop a comprehensive framework for forecasting event-based inflow floods with sub-daily time steps (6-h intervals), considering the uncertainty of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Accordingly

Extreme precipitation on short, sub-hourly time scales has the potential to trigger flash floods, is a particular threat to urban areas, and is expected to increase with climate change. However, little is known about sub-hourly precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate models (CPMs). We investigate sub-hourly precipitation in the KIT-KLIWA ensemble — a CPM climate ensemble driven by 3

The performance of a set of 26 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) in the Euro-Mediterranean region is analyzed based on a classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Their spatial and temporal variability representation, including the associated surface conditions in ERA5 during 1950–2014, allows a ranking of the best-performing GCMs. GCMs manage to reproduce the annual cycle of the CPs

Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and severe intensity, pose significant challenges to water resource management. This study investigates the relationship between meteorological conditions and streamflow dynamics during flash drought events within the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) over the period 1980–2022. The MRB has been a hot spot for flash drought events in recent years with significant

North China (NC) is confronted with high risks of extreme precipitation events due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. Based on hourly gauge data from May to September during 1983–2022, this study investigates the distributions and trends of extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) and maximum hourly precipitation (MHP) in NC, and their linkages with elevation of stations. EHP is defined as the

To advance the comprehensive knowledge of the breakdown and recovery processes of tropical cyclones (TCs) that cross the Philippine Islands, we highlighted Super Typhoon Rai (2021)and performed a control (CTL) run and two sensitivity runs in which the topography of the islands was modified, using a regional atmospheric model. The two sensitivity runs consisted of the Flat Land (FL) run, in which the

An enhanced extreme precipitation (EXP) in or near cities compared to rural areas has been widely observed and verified in individual urban sites. However, at a sufficiently large region, the robustness of evidence for the urbanization contribution to the estimate of EXP trends is still lacking. Here, we present clear evidence from observational records of a dense national station network that a significant

The interannual variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall has amplified in recent decades. Observational and modeling efforts have revealed large-scale circulations could affect variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by altering moisture sources and transport mechanisms. However, the contributions and thermodynamic processes of major moisture sources, along with their interannual variability, remain unclear.

Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate change. Given their significant societal impact compared to droughts of shorter duration, it is crucial to better understand the drivers of MYDs. Using reanalysis data, this study provides a historical overview of MYDs in California, Western Europe, India, central Argentina, South Africa, and southeast

From July 29th to August 2nd, 2023, an exceptional precipitation event, referred as 237HRE, struck North China, causing widespread flooding in the Haihe River basin. Utilizing reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this study delves into the reasons behind the unusual westward extension and northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), as well as the

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) has affected the ecological environment and caused considerable socioeconomic impact. Consequently, MHWs prediction has received increasing attention. This study aims to evaluate the short-term (months to interannual timescales) MHWs prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS

Global warming and its implications for extreme events are important subjects of discussion worldwide. This study analyzes the changes in intense tropical cyclone (INT TC) activities over the Arabian Sea Basin (ARB) from 1981 to 2020 during the October–November season, along with its connection to the rise in thermal energy stored in the upper ocean and column-averaged atmospheric instability of the

Compound drought and heat wave events (CDHWs) are weather and climate hazards whose frequency is increasing in many regions across the globe. Here, we applied a novel Lagrangian atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework to the outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis to quantify the moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for CDHWs occurred in the Iberian Peninsula

This study investigates potential wildfire risks across different global warming scenarios through a comparative analysis of two prominent fire weather indices: the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Index (FWI), leveraging the latest multi-model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Utilizing the Extreme Gradient

Southeastern Australia has experienced two major droughts in recent decades: the Millennium Drought that started in 1997 and lasted for more than a decade and the Tinderbox Drought (2017–2019) that was shorter but more intense. As has been reported by previous studies, the termination of droughts in semi-arid regions effectively happens after very wet events at monthly-to-seasonal time scales. Building

Historically, Ethiopia has experienced recurrent droughts and floods, which may intensify due to climate change. This study has evaluated the performance of 45 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating ten extreme precipitation indices against corresponding indices from the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) during short rainy (February–May, FMAM)

Extreme events, particularly very high temperatures, are expected to increase because of climate change. It is thus essential that localised studies be done to quantify the magnitude of potential changes so that proper planning, especially effective adaptation measures, can be affected. This study analysed annual extreme daily maximum temperatures for future climate change scenarios at 22 locations

Different heatwave types exert distinctive impacts on the socio-economic and ecosystems, but the potential mechanisms for different heatwave types remain poorly understood. In this study, we identify the hot spots of daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves over China during 1991–2022, and provide a systematic investigation of their distinctive atmospheric configurations. The results show that the

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has consistently garnered attention due to its sensitivity to global climate change and the implications of future global warming. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by three global models from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to investigate future mean and extreme climate changes over the TP. WRF's historical

Extreme El Niño events entail important socio-economic challenges, both in regions such as South America directly affected by their impacts and in regions around the world that are influenced by the associated teleconnections. Uncertainty remains about the ability of recent climate models to reproduce the characteristics and impacts of extreme El Niño events. In this study, we evaluate the ability

From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed (SPEI -2.6) rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To understand the role of human-induced climate change in the drought, we analysed rainfall trends

In this study, we evaluated the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model's (CCAM) ability to simulate the characteristics of severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Hina, which occurred in the Southwest Pacific in 1985. We compared the model's performance using both a quasi-uniform grid and a variable-resolution grid to investigate differences in the representation of TC Hina's properties, such as tracks and intensity

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events

Precipitation brought by cyclone systems has long been known as a major contributor to devastating flood events.Recent post-tropical cyclones (PTCs), which transform from tropical cyclones (TC) to extratropical cyclones (ETC) in the mid-latitudes, are among the strongest cyclones in the mid-latitude European region. Understanding PTCs and their precipitation behavior, particularly in the context of

Due to their rapidly changing atmospheric processes, forecasting thunderstorms resulting from the merger of isolated cells is a complex task for highly-resolved numerical weather prediction models. This study employed a novel approach to establish the processes that drive updrafts and downdrafts in the merger of isolated thunderstorm cells that produced heavy rainfall and flooding in Kumasi and other

Rising summer heat and more frequent and intense heatwaves impact countless metropolitan regions, including Greater Sydney, Australia. An analysis of historic air temperature measurements (1859–2020) reveals a notable increase in the number of ‘hot’ (≥35 °C) days during austral summers. While in the first 120 years of records 351 hot days were identified, 478 hot days were recorded during 2000–2020

Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers’ incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach

The Taklimakan desert, situated in western China and known for its scarcity of precipitation, experienced an unprecedented precipitation event on 13-14th May 2021. However, the moisture sources and the reason for such extreme precipitation in the heart of the desert remain unexplored. Here, leveraging rain gauge observations from Tazhong Station, situated in the heartland of the Taklimakan Desert,

Drought to flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events, as a special category of compound extreme events that suddenly shift from drought to flood conditions, have significantly greater impacts than individual drought or flood events. In this paper, we have utilized a multifactorial drought index and flood index to identify daily DFAA events occurring in mainland China and in major impact areas during the

Most droughts go unnamed. At the time they are happening, they are generally referred to simply as “the drought.” After the fact, they are typically designated by a year or run of years rather than by a name: 1927–29, for instance. But in recent decades, proper names have increasingly been bestowed on droughts in southeast Australia in an informal although widely accepted practice. Examples include

Understanding short-duration intense rainfall is crucial for mitigating flash floods, landslides, soil erosion, and pollution incidents. Yet, most observations from rain gauges are only available at the daily resolution. We use the new Global Sub Daily Rainfall dataset to explore extreme rainfall at both daily and sub-daily durations worldwide. Employing Single Gauge Analysis (SGA) and pioneering global-scale

Australia's Murray-Darling Basin experienced three consecutive years of meteorological drought across 2017–2019, collectively named the ‘Tinderbox Drought’. Rainfall deficits during the three-year drought were most pronounced in the Australian cool season (April to September). Deficits in both the cool season and annual total rainfall were unprecedented in the instrumental record. However, the instrumental

High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the

In regions where groundwater forms the primary source of drinking water, comprehending the prospective availability of subsurface water resources due to climate change is of paramount importance.

Widespread extreme climate events cause many fatalities, economic losses and have a huge impact on critical infrastructure. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate the frequency and associated consequences of spatially concurrent extremes. Impact studies of climate extremes are severely hampered by the lack of extreme observations, and even large ensembles of climate simulations often do not

This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts

Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4

A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor

Recently, the intensity and frequency of heat waves (HWs) have been increased worldwide. Particularly in 2022, Europe was severely affected by unprecedented HWs, which caused approximately 61,672 deaths and 11,324 deaths in Europe and Spain, respectively. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms of the HWs in southwestern Europe (SWEU) to identify the differences between typical HWs and the extreme

Hydrological models that are used to analyse flood risk induced by tropical cyclones often input ERA5 reanalysis data. However, ERA5 precipitation has large systematic biases, especially over heavy precipitation events like Tropical Cyclones, compromising its usefulness in such scenarios. Few studies to date have performed bias correction of ERA5 precipitation and none of them for extreme rainfall

Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration <10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based

Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation

The June 2013 extreme precipitation event in Alberta resulted in devastating flash floods that caused significant economic losses and societal disruption. In this study, two high-resolution experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the change of the 2013 Alberta extreme precipitation event in a warmer climate. The control experiment was forced with 6-hourly

Compound flash drought and heatwave (FDHW) events have garnered increasing amounts of attention due to their substantial impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. However, studies on their intensity and classification in China are limited. In this study, we classified FDHW events in China from 1980 to 2022 using a classification framework designed to address regional patterns and

Hailstorms are severe weather events with the potential for devastating impacts. The consequences can be significantly worsened when hail events are accompanied by strong winds, intensifying both hail momentum and damage to property sidings and windows. Additionally, rainfall extremes during hailstorms can disrupt the drainage systems, potentially leading to flash flooding. Therefore, understanding