This paper proposes that mathematicians routinely use inference to the best explanation (IBE) to confirm their conjectures. Mathematicians can justly reason that the ‘best explanation’ of some mathematical evidence they possess would be a proof of it that likewise proves a given conjecture. By IBE, the evidence thereby confirms that such an as-yet-undiscovered proof exists and that the conjecture holds. This reasoning can be expressed in Bayesian terms once Bayesianism’s logical omniscience has been circumvented. A Bayesian analysis identifies considerations affecting a mathematical IBE’s strength and helps to unify mathematical IBEs with scientific IBEs.

中文翻译：

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作为数学中非演绎推理的一种形式的最佳解释的推理


本文建议数学家经常使用最佳解释推理 （IBE） 来证实他们的猜想。数学家可以有理由推断，他们所拥有的一些数学证据的“最佳解释”将是同样证明给定猜想的证明。通过 IBE，证据因此证实了这样一个尚未被发现的证据存在，并且猜想成立。一旦绕过了贝叶斯主义的逻辑全知，这种推理就可以用贝叶斯术语来表达。贝叶斯分析确定了影响数学 IBE 强度的考虑因素，并有助于统一数学 IBE 与科学 IBE。