This study makes three key contributions to the literature on the effect of conflict-induced violence on wartime migration. First, while conflict-induced violence is often treated as a monolithic factor, we consider conflict-induced violence as multidimensional, varying in intensity, type and proximity. Second, by including both movers and stayers, we address the mobility bias prevalent in the literature and examine both mobility and immobility in the context of conflict. Third, we contribute to debates on destination choices by empirically testing the likelihood of internal displacement versus seeking refuge abroad. Using dynamic models and unique comparative data from the OneUA project, which surveyed 24,000 Ukrainian women in Ukraine and eight other European countries, we examine the migration behaviors of those who stayed in their pre-war residence, relocated internally (internally displaced persons), or fled abroad during the first 6 months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Our findings reveal a curvilinear relationship between conflict-induced violence and migration propensity: violence initially increases migration but diminishes beyond a threshold. We also find that forewarnings and indirect threats have a stronger influence on migration than direct threats. Violence catalyzes migration among vulnerable groups, narrowing demographic disparities in migration propensity. However, resourceful individuals retain an advantage in early migration, perpetuating inequalities in escape opportunities. Additionally, we observe distinct patterns of internal versus international migration in response to stronger conflict-induced violence, providing theoretical and empirical insights into the dynamics of wartime migration.

中文翻译：

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冲突引发的暴力对战时移民决策的多维影响：来自乌克兰的证据


本研究对关于冲突引发的暴力对战时移民影响的文献做出了三个关键贡献。首先，虽然冲突引发的暴力通常被视为一个单一的因素，但我们认为冲突引发的暴力是多维的，其强度、类型和接近程度各不相同。其次，通过包括移动者和留守者，我们解决了文献中普遍存在的流动性偏见，并研究了冲突背景下的流动性和不流动性。第三，我们通过实证检验国内流离失所与在国外寻求避难的可能性，为关于目的地选择的辩论做出了贡献。使用来自 OneUA 项目的动态模型和独特比较数据，该项目调查了乌克兰和其他八个欧洲国家的 24,000 名乌克兰妇女，我们研究了那些留在战前住所、国内搬迁（国内流离失所者）或逃往国外的人的迁移行为在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰的前 6 个月。我们的研究结果揭示了冲突引发的暴力与移民倾向之间的曲线关系：暴力最初会增加移民，但在超过阈值后会减少。我们还发现，预警和间接威胁对移民的影响比直接威胁更大。暴力促进了弱势群体的迁移，缩小了移民倾向的人口差异。然而，足智多谋的个体在早期迁移中保留了优势，使逃跑机会的不平等长期存在。此外，我们观察到国内移民与国际移民的不同模式，以应对更强的冲突引发的暴力，为战时移民的动态提供了理论和实证见解。