Conflict scholars commonly employ public opinion surveys to understand the causes and consequences of violence. However, surveying in wartime presents a distinctive set of challenges. We examine two challenges facing polling in countries at war: under-coverage of national samples and response bias. Although these issues are acknowledged in the literature on surveying methods, they become significantly more pronounced in war zones due to the geographic clustering of violence and the heightened sensitivity surrounding certain opinions. We illustrate these challenges in the context of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, drawing on original panel survey data tracing the attitudes of the same people in Ukraine prior to and after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. We show that unit and item non-response bias in surveys conducted during the war are related to respondents’ political orientation, particularly their support for NATO membership measured in 2019. We conclude with lessons for those employing survey methods in wartime, and point to steps forward, in Ukraine and beyond.

中文翻译：

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战区测绘面临的挑战：乌克兰的经验教训


冲突学者通常采用民意调查来了解暴力的原因和后果。然而，战时测绘面临着一系列独特的挑战。我们研究了战争国家民意调查面临的两个挑战：国家样本覆盖率不足和反应偏倚。尽管这些问题在有关调查方法的文献中得到了承认，但由于暴力的地理聚集和围绕某些观点的高度敏感性，它们在战区变得更加明显。我们在持续的俄乌战争的背景下说明了这些挑战，并利用原始面板调查数据追溯了 2022 年俄罗斯全面入侵前后乌克兰同一人的态度。我们表明，在战争期间进行的调查中，单位和项目未回答偏差与受访者的政治取向有关，特别是他们在 2019 年衡量的对加入北约的支持率。最后，我们为那些在战时采用调查方法的人提供了经验教训，并指出了在乌克兰及其他地区取得的进步。