Background: Quantitative studies of Amish population dynamics have been methodologically constrained by difficulties identifying Amish in national surveys. If Amish could be reliably identified in, for example, the American Community Survey (ACS), researchers could leverage its rich variables to document both demographic outcomes and their social predictors. Objective: Cross-validate two methods for studying Amish populations by comparing fertility measures in the ACS with the Cross-sectional Amish Population and Environment Database-2010s (CAPED-2010s), a large administrative record database of North American Amish. Methods: We identify potential Amish ACS respondents through combinations of the attributes (1) Pennsylvania Dutch language use, (2) absence of household telephone, and (3) farming. We then calculate fertility measures derived from both the CAPED data and ACS data samples (2000–2021). This comparative method allows us to assess whether the two samples produce demographic comparable estimates. Results: Both methods produce remarkably consistent fertility statistics, including total fertility rates (just over six children), age-specific fertility rates (highest ages 20–29), and non-marital fertility (very low). Conclusions: The strong agreement between ACS- and CAPED-2010s-derived demographic estimates validates both approaches for studying Amish populations. Contribution: The ACS’s rich social variables complement CAPED-2010s’ comprehensive demographic coverage, demonstrating the credibility of two separate large databases for studies of the Amish. Comments: Based on #6875 after invitation to resubmit as descriptive finding

中文翻译：

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美国的阿米什人生育率：来自美国社区调查和阿米什人种群登记处的比较证据（作者：Lyman Stone、Cory Anderson、Stephanie Thiehoff）


背景：阿米什人种群动态的定量研究在方法上受到在全国调查中识别阿米什人的困难的限制。例如，如果在美国社区调查 （ACS） 中可以可靠地识别阿米什人，研究人员就可以利用其丰富的变量来记录人口统计结果及其社会预测因素。目的：通过将 ACS 中的生育率测量值与横断面阿米什人口与环境数据库 （CAPED-2010s） 进行比较，交叉验证两种研究阿米什人人口的方法，该数据库是北美阿米什人的大型行政记录数据库。方法：我们通过以下属性的组合来识别潜在的阿米什 ACS 受访者：（1） 宾夕法尼亚州荷兰语使用，（2） 没有家用电话，以及 （3） 农业。然后，我们计算从 CAPED 数据和 ACS 数据样本 （2000-2021） 得出的生育率指标。这种比较方法使我们能够评估两个样本是否产生人口统计学可比估计值。结果：两种方法都产生了非常一致的生育统计数据，包括总生育率（略高于 6 个孩子）、特定年龄的生育率（最高的 20-29 岁）和非婚生育率（非常低）。结论：ACS 和 CAPED-2010 衍生的人口估计之间的高度一致性验证了两种研究阿米什人人口的方法。贡献：ACS 丰富的社会变量补充了 CAPED-2010 的全面人口统计覆盖范围，证明了两个独立的大型数据库对阿米什人研究的可信度。评论：基于 #6875 在邀请重新提交作为描述性调查结果后