The rise in late fertility has emerged as a landmark trend in high‐income countries in recent decades. Yet, its spread has been geographically uneven, which has largely been attributed to socioeconomic contextual factors. Our study introduces a new perspective: the role of spatial diffusion processes. We exploit the regional variation in the increase in the contribution of late fertility rates to total fertility to assess whether a region follows the behaviour of nearby regions in preceding periods. To test this, we use a comprehensive panel of 193 regions across 18 European countries and utilise a dynamic spatial Durbin model that captures both temporal and spatial interdependencies. After accounting for socioeconomic factors known to affect late fertility rates, such as the tertiarisation of education or changes in the opportunity structure of the labour market, we still find a significant association between geographic proximity and the rise in late fertility across European regions. This underlines the deep interconnectedness within and across contemporary societies. Thus, beyond socioeconomic transformations, our research provides empirical evidence that diffusion processes have contributed to the spread of late births across the continent, and will likely continue to shape future fertility trends.

中文翻译：

---

晚生育率在欧洲地区的扩散 （2006–2018）


近几十年来，晚生育率的提高已成为高收入国家的标志性趋势。然而，它的传播在地理上是不均衡的，这在很大程度上归因于社会经济背景因素。我们的研究引入了一个新的视角：空间扩散过程的作用。我们利用晚期生育率对总生育率贡献增加的区域差异来评估一个地区是否遵循附近地区在前一时期的行为。为了验证这一点，我们使用了一个由 18 个欧洲国家的 193 个地区组成的综合面板，并利用动态空间 Durbin 模型来捕获时间和空间的相互依赖关系。在考虑了已知影响晚年生育率的社会经济因素后，例如教育的高等教育化或劳动力市场机会结构的变化，我们仍然发现地理上的接近与欧洲地区晚生育率的上升之间存在显著关联。这凸显了当代社会内部和之间的深刻相互联系。因此，除了社会经济转型之外，我们的研究还提供了实证证据，表明扩散过程导致了晚产在整个非洲大陆的传播，并可能继续塑造未来的生育趋势。