Climate variability is increasingly gaining recognition as a factor exacerbating risks to peace in Africa, particularly in contexts characterized by weak institutions and fragile agri-food systems. Existing literature has highlighted the intricate indirect pathways that can lead to increasing conflicts following a climatic shock, including reduced agricultural yields, increased food insecurity, and other socio-economic channels that are highly context-specific as well as difficult to quantify. This study investigates the nexus between climate variability (proxied by temperature anomalies) and violent conflicts as mediated by child acute malnutrition in Nigeria. Starting from previous quantitative analyses that implicitly assumed the existence of a singular transmission pathway linking climate variability to conflict, this study employs a structural equation model that accommodates the presence of multiple, albeit unobserved, mediating factors. In doing so, it pioneers the use of children’s nutritional indicators as mediating factors to capture the multidimensional nature of the climate–conflict relationship. The novel approach proposed for this analysis increases the accuracy of estimating the indirect impacts of climate variability on conflict, as mediated by child nutritional outcomes, and contributes to the literature linked to the humanitarian, development and peace nexus. From a policy perspective, our findings aim to inform and support identifying policies and interventions aimed at mitigating the threat posed by climate variability to human security through the nutrition channel.

中文翻译：

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变暖世界中的营养不良和暴力冲突：尼日利亚气候-冲突关系的调解分析


气候多变性越来越被认为是加剧非洲和平风险的一个因素，尤其是在机构薄弱和农业粮食体系脆弱的情况下。现有文献强调了气候冲击后可能导致冲突增加的错综复杂的间接途径，包括农业产量下降、粮食不安全加剧以及其他高度特定于环境且难以量化的社会经济渠道。本研究调查了气候变率（由温度异常代理）与尼日利亚儿童急性营养不良介导的暴力冲突之间的联系。从以前的定量分析开始，隐含地假设存在将气候变率与冲突联系起来的单一传播途径，本研究采用了结构方程模型，该模型容纳了多个但未观察到的中介因素的存在。在此过程中，它率先使用儿童营养指标作为中介因素来捕捉气候-冲突关系的多维性质。为该分析提出的新方法提高了估计气候变异对冲突的间接影响的准确性，如儿童营养结果所介导的，并为与人道主义、发展与和平关系相关的文献做出了贡献。从政策角度来看，我们的研究结果旨在为确定旨在通过营养渠道减轻气候变异对人类安全构成威胁的政策和干预措施提供信息和支持。