We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great Recession across the United States to examine its impact on mortality and explore the quantitative implications. We estimate that an increase in the unemployment rate of the magnitude of the Great Recession reduces the average annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3 percent, with effects persisting for at least 10 years. Mortality reductions appear across causes of death and are concentrated in the half of the population with a high school degree or less. We estimate similar percentage reductions in mortality at all ages, with declines in elderly mortality thus responsible for about three-quarters of the total mortality reduction. Recession-induced mortality declines are driven primarily by external effects of reduced aggregate economic activity on mortality, and reduced air pollution appears to be a quantitatively important mechanism. Incorporating our estimates of pro-cyclical mortality into a standard macroeconomics framework substantially reduces the welfare costs of recessions, particularly for people with less education, and at older ages.

中文翻译：

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生命与生计：大衰退对死亡率和福利的影响


我们利用美国大衰退严重程度的空间变化来检查其对死亡率的影响并探索定量影响。我们估计，大衰退时期的失业率上升会使年平均年龄调整死亡率降低 2.3%，其影响至少持续 10 年。死亡率降低出现在各种死因中，并且集中在高中或以下学历的一半人口中。我们估计所有年龄段的死亡率降低百分比相似，因此老年人死亡率的下降约占总死亡率降低的四分之三。经济衰退引起的死亡率下降主要是由总经济活动减少对死亡率的外部影响驱动的，而减少空气污染似乎是一个定量上的重要机制。将我们对顺周期死亡率的估计纳入标准的宏观经济学框架，可以大大降低衰退的福利成本，特别是对受教育程度较低和年龄较大的人。