This article determines the asymmetric impact of oil and fuel prices and the pressure in supply chains on inflation and consumer inflation expectations in Czechia, Hungary and Poland. The research period covers COVID-19 and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2017–2022). We compare the V-3 countries, which are heavily dependent on Russian oil. We estimate the nonlinear ARDL model and multithreshold ARDL to verify whether long-run relationships exist between oil prices (fuel prices or the pressure in global supply chains) and inflation or expectations. We find asymmetric reactions. However, no comparable pattern exists across the sample countries.

中文翻译：

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新兴经济体燃料和石油价格对通胀和通胀预期的不对称影响

本文确定了石油和燃料价格以及供应链压力对捷克、匈牙利和波兰的通胀和消费者通胀预期的不对称影响。研究期涵盖 COVID-19 和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的开始（2017-2022 年）。我们比较了严重依赖俄罗斯石油的 V-3 国家。我们估计非线性 ARDL 模型和多阈值 ARDL，以验证油价（燃料价格或全球供应链压力）与通货膨胀或预期之间是否存在长期关系。我们发现了不对称的反应。然而，样本国家之间不存在可比模式。