Background: We study the change in fertility intentions in Russia during the period of socioeconomic shocks in 2022–2023 resulting from the Russia–Ukraine armed conflict. Objective: Our objective is to identify factors that influence decision-making in a low fertility context during a crisis, including both objective characteristics and subjective assessment of the current situation. Methods: This paper is based on unique survey results, conducted in May 2023 (N = 7,967). The sample includes Russian citizens aged 18–44 and represents Russia’s population by gender, age, and place of residence. The analysis is based on binary choice models (probit) and machine learning techniques (honest trees), which were applied to assess the heterogeneity of the sample. Results: The most important factors, which accounted for 76% of the explained variance, were linked to a subjective assessment of the situation and the respondent’s emotional state: the attitude to the political direction of the country, and feelings of happiness, anxiety, or fear. Traditional objective characteristics such as respondents’ age, marital status, and parenthood status play a less important role. We also found that women’s fertility decisions are more associated with positive emotions such as happiness and peacefulness in comparison to men. We observed that subjective factors related to politics, conflict, and emotions amplify each other’s effects. Conclusions: In times of uncertainty, trust in state policy plays an important role in smoothing the population’s reaction to shocks. Contribution: We provide a novel quantitative investigation into the role of subjective perceptions in shaping reproductive intentions during a period of high uncertainty in a low-fertility-rate country through econometric and ML tools, expand the group of factors which measure subjective perceptions including different emotions, attitudes to the country’s political course, and government maternity capital programs, and show how they accelerate each other.

中文翻译：

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高度不确定性时期：2022-2023 年俄罗斯的生育意愿如何变化（作者：Elena Vakulenko、Dmitriy Gorskiy、Valeria Kondrateva、Ilya Trofimenko）


背景：我们研究了 2022-2023 年俄乌武装冲突导致社会经济冲击期间俄罗斯生育意愿的变化。目的： 我们的目标是确定危机期间在低生育率背景下影响决策的因素，包括客观特征和对当前形势的主观评估。方法： 本文基于 2023 年 5 月进行的独特调查结果 （N = 7,967）。样本包括 18-44 岁的俄罗斯公民，按性别、年龄和居住地代表俄罗斯人口。该分析基于二元选择模型 （probit） 和机器学习技术 （诚实树），这些模型被用于评估样本的异质性。结果：最重要的因素（占解释方差的 76%）与对情况和受访者情绪状态的主观评估有关：对国家政治方向的态度，以及快乐、焦虑或恐惧的感觉。受访者的年龄、婚姻状况和父母身份等传统客观特征的作用不太重要。我们还发现，与男性相比，女性的生育决定更多地与幸福与和平等积极情绪相关。我们观察到，与政治、冲突和情感相关的主观因素会放大彼此的影响。结论：在不确定的时期，对国家政策的信任在平滑民众对冲击的反应方面发挥着重要作用。 贡献： 我们通过计量经济学和 ML 工具对低生育率国家高度不确定性时期主观感知在塑造生育意愿中的作用进行了新颖的定量调查，扩大了衡量主观感知的因素组，包括不同的情绪、对国家政治进程的态度和政府生育资本计划，并展示了它们如何相互加速。