Climate treaties have progressed over time to pledge substantial reductions in global warming. This is surprising, given that theories of climate politics emphasize collective-action problems and domestic deadlock. I first describe the process of updating climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. Then I develop a theoretical argument that explains target changes based on how countries are situated in economic and political networks. Trade flows create competitive economic pressures that may undermine climate action, but these pressures may ebb when partners also commit to act. I argue that political networks support conditional cooperation, especially when institutional design promotes gradual commitments. I use spatial regression models to study how countries’ climate targets are related to their partners’ prior targets. I find that countries pledged stronger updated mitigation targets in the Glasgow Climate Pact when their closest political partners submitted strong targets in the Paris Agreement. This suggests the Paris Agreement drove conditional cooperation on mitigation.

中文翻译：

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从僵局到棘轮：气候变化的有条件合作

随着时间的推移，气候条约取得了进展，承诺大幅减少全球变暖。这很令人惊讶，因为气候政治理论强调集体行动问题和国内僵局。我首先介绍了根据《巴黎协定》更新气候减缓目标的过程。然后，我提出了一个理论论点，根据国家在经济和政治网络中的位置来解释目标变化。贸易流动会产生竞争性经济压力，这可能会破坏气候行动，但当合作伙伴也承诺采取行动时，这些压力可能会减弱。我认为，政治网络支持有条件的合作，特别是当制度设计促进渐进的承诺时。我使用空间回归模型来研究各国的气候目标与其合作伙伴之前的目标之间的关系。我发现，当各国最亲密的政治伙伴在《巴黎协定》中提交强有力的目标时，它们承诺在《格拉斯哥气候公约》中提出更强有力的更新减排目标。这表明《巴黎协定》推动了有条件的减排合作。