Europe has emerged as a prime destination for global migration. Although drivers of European migration are well‐researched, the patterns and spatial dynamics of these bilateral migration flows are less understood. This study investigates the spatial clustering of bilateral migration flows to EU destinations, considering factors like geographic and linguistic proximity between origin and destination countries. We also explore how migration clusters evolve over time, highlighting the spatial dimension of cumulative causation in shaping migration patterns. The findings reveal significant variation in spatial dependence across different legal migration categories. Although all regular migration pathways demonstrate some degree of spatial dependence, the intensity varies considerably. Asylum migration exhibits the strongest spatial dependence among geographically proximate origin countries, followed by educational migration of students. Conversely, family and labor migration flows show the lowest levels of spatial dependence, though linguistic proximity is an important linking factor in these categories. These results underscore the substantial impact of spatial interdependencies and cumulative causation in shaping migration flows. Policymakers should account for these mechanisms when designing strategies to influence migration. Understanding these spatial dynamics is essential for explaining the often limited effectiveness of policies targeting interdependent and often integrated international migration processes.

中文翻译：

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欧洲移民流的空间依赖性

欧洲已成为全球移民的主要目的地。尽管欧洲移民的驱动因素得到了充分研究，但这些双边移民流动的模式和空间动态却鲜为人知。本研究调查了流向欧盟目的地的双边移民流的空间聚类，考虑了来源国和目的地国之间的地理和语言接近等因素。我们还探讨了迁移集群如何随着时间的推移而演变，强调了塑造迁移模式的累积因果关系的空间维度。研究结果揭示了不同合法移民类别之间的空间依赖性存在显著差异。尽管所有常规迁移路径都表现出一定程度的空间依赖性，但强度差异很大。在地理上邻近的原籍国中，庇护移民表现出最强的空间依赖性，其次是学生的教育移民。相反，家庭和劳动力迁移流动显示出最低水平的空间依赖性，尽管语言接近性是这些类别中的一个重要联系因素。这些结果强调了空间相互依存关系和累积因果关系对塑造迁移流的重大影响。政策制定者在设计影响移民的策略时应考虑这些机制。了解这些空间动态对于解释针对相互依存且往往是综合的国际移民进程的政策通常的有效性有限至关重要。