Since 2012, there are four different electricity price zones in Sweden, although not until 2021 a clear deviating development can be identified. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the regional electricity price divergence starting in 2021 on the demand for solar photovoltaic installations in municipalities in the Southern and Central parts of Sweden. Methodologically, the analysis employs a panel Poisson estimator that accounts for the skewed distribution of the dependent variables including zero values. Data include all 290 municipalities from 2016 to 2023. Estimation results show that the increase in electricity prices in the South of Sweden leads to a surge in the number of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations of 25 % per year from 2021 onwards on average relative to the low-price zone in the North of Sweden and the base period 2016 to 2020. In the case of Central Sweden which is also in the high price zone, the estimates show an increase of 15 % per year on average. Thus, the findings suggest that households react to price incentives by trying to be independent of the electricity market and its fluctuating prices. Similar results are achieved when the installed capacity in megawatts is used as a dependent variable instead of the number of installations. Rising electricity prices explain less than half of the increase in demand for solar photovoltaics over time. A vast majority is related to the time effects.

中文翻译：

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电价上涨对光伏太阳能系统需求的影响

自 2012 年以来，瑞典有四个不同的电价区，但直到 2021 年才能确定明显的偏离发展。本研究的目的是调查从 2021 年开始的区域电价差异对瑞典南部和中部城市对太阳能光伏装置需求的影响。在方法上，该分析采用面板泊松估计器来解释因变量的偏态分布，包括零值。数据包括 2016 年至 2023 年的所有 290 个城市。估计结果表明，瑞典南部电价上涨导致太阳能光伏 （PV） 装置数量从 2021 年起平均每年激增 25%，相对于瑞典北部的低价区和 2016 年至 2020 年的基准期。以同样处于高价区的瑞典中部为例，估计平均每年增长 15%。因此，研究结果表明，家庭通过试图独立于电力市场及其波动的价格来对价格激励做出反应。当以兆瓦为单位的装机容量用作因变量而不是安装数量时，可以获得类似的结果。随着时间的推移，不断上涨的电价只能解释太阳能光伏需求增加的不到一半。绝大多数与时间效应有关。