Based on Harmonized System 6-digit code data from 1995 to 2022, this study uses survival analysis to assess the survival of global energy imports, which characterizes resilience. Next, it quantitatively investigates the impact of geopolitical risks in exporting countries on import survival. The key findings are summarized as follows. First, the average length of the 300,971 trade spells is 3.269 years. Remarkably, 80.68 % of these spells have a length that does not exceed 3 years, whereas only 3.98 % persist beyond 18 years in length. Second, the hazard rate of global energy imports reaches 0.573 in the initial year, but it typically decreases as the import duration increases. Compared with other countries, Japan has superior resilience in terms of energy imports, whereas the United States has inferior resilience in this regard. With respect to product categories, global petroleum imports display greater resilience than coal and gas imports do. Third, elevated geopolitical risks in exporting countries significantly increase the hazard rate of global energy imports. Geopolitical risks intensify the hazard rate of global petroleum imports more than that of coal and gas imports. Furthermore, for OECD exporting countries, the enhancing impact of geopolitical risks on the hazard rate of trade disruptions is attenuated. Finally, drawing upon the primary conclusions, policy implications are suggested to increase import resilience and safeguard international energy security.

中文翻译：

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全球能源进口的生存和地缘政治风险的影响

基于 1995 年至 2022 年的协调制度 6 位代码数据，本研究使用生存分析来评估全球能源进口的生存情况，这是弹性的特征。接下来，它定量调查了出口国的地缘政治风险对进口生存的影响。主要发现总结如下。首先，300,971 个交易咒语的平均长度为 3.269 年。值得注意的是，这些咒语中有 80.68% 的长度不超过 3 年，而只有 3.98% 的咒语持续时间超过 18 年。其次，全球能源进口的危险率在第一年达到 0.573，但通常会随着进口期限的增加而降低。与其他国家相比，日本在能源进口方面的韧性更强，而美国在这方面的韧性较差。在产品类别方面，全球石油进口比煤炭和天然气进口表现出更大的弹性。第三，出口国地缘政治风险的升高显著提高了全球能源进口的危险率。地缘政治风险加剧了全球石油进口的危险率，超过了煤炭和天然气进口的危险率。此外，对于经合组织出口国来说，地缘政治风险对贸易中断危险率的增强影响被减弱。最后，根据主要结论，提出了提高进口弹性和维护国际能源安全的政策意义。