The persistent supply chain bottlenecks and monetary policy substantially influence energy prices; however, these factors affect energy prices asymmetrically. Therefore, this study determines the time varying and asymmetric influence of monetary policy shocks (MPS) and supply chain shocks on energy prices in the US. This study adopts a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and wavelet coherence models using the monthly data from 1998 to 2021 in empirical investigation. The long-run findings reveal that a positive shock in supply chain pressure stimulates energy prices, while a negative shock in supply chain pressure reduces energy prices. Besides, the positive monetary policy shock increases energy prices, and negative shock has insignificant effects on energy prices in the long run. The short-run estimates exhibit that positive supply chain pressure and monetary policy shocks do not impact energy prices. However, negative supply chain shocks (monetary policy shocks) increases (decreases) energy prices in the short run. Moreover, the time-varying wavelet coherence approach affirms a strong coherence between MPS, supply chian pressure, and energy prices, while the impacts differ at variant frequency and time domains. Overall, the asymmetric and time-frequency findings provide valuable policies to the US policymakers.

中文翻译：

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货币政策和供应链冲击如何使用非线性 ARDL 和小波相干方法影响消费者能源价格

持续的供应链瓶颈和货币政策对能源价格产生了重大影响;然而，这些因素对能源价格的影响是不对称的。因此，本研究确定了货币政策冲击 （MPS） 和供应链冲击对美国能源价格的时间变化和不对称影响。本研究采用非线性自回归分布式滞后和小波相干模型，使用 1998 年至 2021 年的月度数据进行实证调查。长期研究结果表明，供应链压力的积极冲击会刺激能源价格，而供应链压力的负面冲击会降低能源价格。此外，积极的货币政策冲击会推高能源价格，而从长远来看，负面冲击对能源价格的影响微不足道。短期估计表明，积极的供应链压力和货币政策冲击不会影响能源价格。然而，负面供应链冲击（货币政策冲击）在短期内会提高（降低）能源价格。此外，时变小波相干方法肯定了 MPS、供应压力和能源价格之间的强连贯性，而影响在不同的频率和时域上有所不同。总体而言，不对称和时间频率的调查结果为美国政策制定者提供了有价值的政策。