This study examines the impact of cost-weighted geopolitical risk exposure in the supply chains of U.S. firms. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework centered on the Russo-Ukrainian War, we find that treated firms experience a significant increase in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. In addition, these firms exhibit higher default probabilities and lower credit ratings, reflecting heightened financial vulnerability. These findings underscore the need for incorporating supply chain geopolitical risk metrics into credit risk assessments by policymakers and financial analysts, especially during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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当地缘政治风险冲击供应链时：对信用违约掉期市场的影响

本研究考察了成本加权地缘政治风险敞口对美国公司供应链的影响。使用以俄乌战争为中心的双重差分 （DiD） 框架，我们发现接受治疗的公司的信用违约掉期 （CDS） 利差显着增加。此外，这些公司表现出更高的违约概率和较低的信用评级，反映出金融脆弱性加剧。这些发现强调，政策制定者和金融分析师需要将供应链地缘政治风险指标纳入信用风险评估，尤其是在地缘政治不确定时期。