This study demonstrates that non-response bias drives selective sample attrition in expectation surveys that require consecutive household responses. Examining 160,842 responses from 20,963 respondents in the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) from June 2013 to April 2024, I show that 66.1 % of respondents who quit the consecutive survey before the completion of 12 tenures—the early quitters—only contributed 44.6 % of total responses. On average, they are 3.2 years younger, have a 5.14 % higher proportion of females, and exhibit lower numerical ability and education level than other respondents. I construct a regression model to demonstrate that early quitters possess significantly different perceptions and expectations regarding personal, household, and national financial and economic matters when responding to SCE. Notably, the early quitters have more positive expectations regarding changes in their financial situation for the next year. They exhibit more negative perceptions of changes in loan difficulty in the U.S. over the past year and hold more pessimistic expectations for changes in loan difficulty in the U.S. for the next year. They anticipate a higher probability of an increased unemployment rate in the U.S. for the next year. All the above results are irrespective of whether the regressions are unweighted or weighted. The non-response bias renders the survey data ungeneralizable, and the weighting applied by SCE does not solve this bias.

中文翻译：

---

期望调查中的无回应偏倚：“早期戒烟者”对财务问题的不同看法和期望

本研究表明，在需要连续家庭回答的期望调查中，无响应偏倚会驱动选择性样本流失。在 2013 年 6 月至 2024 年 4 月的消费者期望调查 （SCE） 中，我研究了 20,842 名受访者的 160,842 份回复，我发现 66.1% 的受访者在 12 个任期结束前退出了连续调查——提前退出者——仅贡献了 44.6% 的回复。平均而言，他们年轻 3.2 岁，女性比例高出 5.14%，并且表现出比其他受访者更低的数字能力和教育水平。我构建了一个回归模型来证明，早期戒烟者在应对 SCE 时对个人、家庭和国家金融和经济事务的看法和期望明显不同。值得注意的是，早期戒烟者对明年的财务状况变化有更积极的期望。他们对过去一年美国贷款难度的变化表现出更多的负面看法，并对明年美国贷款难度的变化持更悲观的预期。他们预计明年美国失业率上升的可能性更高。上述所有结果都与回归是未加权的还是加权的无关。非响应偏差使调查数据不可概括，而 SCE 应用的加权并不能解决这种偏差。